According to a Morningstar analyst, frantic demand for pharmaceuticals to treat obesity from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and other companies might sustain a global market worth eye-popping $60 billion in the following ten years.
By 2032, the market share of Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 agonist Wegovy (semaglutide) and a follow-up combination called CagriSema, which is based on semaglutide and the amylin analogue cagrilintide, is expected to reach around 35%, according to Morningstar’s equities strategist Karen Anderson.
With Mounjaro (tirzepatide), a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist currently approved for diabetes and scheduled for a decision in obesity next year, Lilly will be the market’s main competitor. In addition, Lilly’s portfolio includes an oral GLP-1 drug and a triple agonist therapy that may both receive approval in 2025.
In Phase III weight-loss tests, Mounjaro had outstanding results, resulting in body weight reductions of around 22.5% in non-diabetic individuals and 16% in diabetic patients. Wegovy’s top-line weight reductions in these groups over its Phase III programme were 16% and around 10%, respectively.
Comparing studies can be difficult, but Lilly is doing a head-to-head trial of Mounjaro and Wegovy, with results anticipated by early 2025.
According to Anderson, Lilly’s three medications may give the company a 40% market share in the obesity industry by 2032, with competitors Amgen and Pfizer having the ability to claim a combined 25% market share.
GIPR antagonist and GLP-1 agonist components are combined in Amgen’s bispecific antibody-peptide combination AMG 133, which is now in mid-stage development, while phase II testing of Pfizer’s oral GLP-1 medication danuglipron (PF-07081532) is underway.
“We expect the average global price of GLP-1 therapy for obesity to rise to roughly $5,400 a year as Novo’s and Lilly’s obesity treatments launch, then gradually decline beginning in 2025 as competing therapies launch, falling to roughly $2,800 by 2032.”
– Karen Anderson a analyst of Morningstar’s
