The demand for Novo Nordisk’s obesity medications is surging, with production capacity being the primary limiting factor in the short term. Novo’s recent success with Wegovy, particularly its positive impact on heart health, has opened up significant market potential. Analysts at J.P. Morgan predict that by 2030, Novo could capture nearly half of the market, translating to a staggering $33 billion in sales. Further projections by analyst Richard Vosser estimate the global market to reach $71 billion by 2032, with Novo and Eli Lilly sharing 45% each of the sales.
This substantial market growth, more than doubling the previous estimate of $34 billion, is driven by recent trial results indicating that Wegovy can reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events by 20%. Novo has also presented evidence of Wegovy benefiting heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction, with more trial results expected to be revealed in November at the American Heart Association meeting.
“We believe this data marks the beginning of a paradigm shift in the way that obesity/CV disease is treated, with physicians moving to a weight-centric treatment of multiple co-morbidities associated with obesity, which we expect will lead to substantial demand for obesity products.”
– Richard Vosser
The rising demand for obesity drugs has led J.P. Morgan to revise its revenue compound annual growth rate for Novo from 14% to 22% for the period from 2023 to 2026. In the second quarter, Novo’s GLP-1 diabetes drug Ozempic recorded sales of $3.2 billion, up from $2.1 billion in the same quarter the previous year, while Wegovy generated $1.1 billion in sales, contributing to a 30% increase in Novo’s overall sales from the second quarter of 2022. Eli Lilly has also experienced similar success with its GLP-1 diabetes treatment Mounjaro, reporting trial results indicating its potential for weight loss and generating $980 million in sales during the same period, contributing to a 28% revenue increase for Lilly.
Predictions regarding the GLP-1 market have varied, with Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla suggesting eight months ago that the market could reach $90 billion by 2031, discussing the company’s investigational oral treatment, danuglipron, acquired from Sosei Heptares. These developments highlight the rapidly expanding landscape of obesity medications and their potential to reshape healthcare approaches.