Novo Nordisk is experiencing a remarkable surge in its fortunes, primarily driven by the widespread popularity of its diabetes medication Ozempic and the weight-loss drug Wegovy. This momentum has led the Danish company to revise its full-year sales projections to grow between 32% and 38% at constant exchange rates.
This updated forecast, disclosed on a recent Friday, marks a significant 5-percentage-point increase at both ends of the range when compared to an estimate made in August. It’s worth noting that the August estimate itself was 3 percentage points higher than a previous forecast from April.
The success of Ozempic, often used off-label to treat obesity, coupled with new discount adjustments for Ozempic and Wegovy in the US, has fueled this improved sales outlook, according to Novo Nordisk. Notably, Novo’s share price reached a new all-time high, trading at around $104 on the New York Stock Exchange during that Friday.
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In addition to elevating its sales forecast, Novo also raised its estimated profit growth rate by an impressive 9 percentage points, now ranging from 40% to 46%. These new figures were released ahead of the full disclosure of the company’s third-quarter results, which is scheduled for November 2.
The notable success of both Ozempic and Wegovy, both of which use the semaglutide ingredient, has firmly established Novo Nordisk as the most valuable company in Europe. To manage the surging demand for these medications, Novo implemented restrictions on starter doses of Wegovy back in May, ensuring that existing patients could access an adequate supply. The company expects these starter dose supply constraints to continue into 2024.
In its effort to ramp up production, Novo enlisted the services of Thermo Fisher’s CDMO subsidiary Patheon in August to assist in filling the injection pens for Wegovy. The FDA had previously raised concerns about the facilities responsible for producing Wegovy, both owned by Novo and its partner Catalent.
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While Novo Nordisk is already achieving unprecedented sales with its diabetes and obesity treatments, it is actively seeking to expand the use of semaglutide into new medical indications. Recently, the company halted a clinical trial prematurely, as semaglutide demonstrated its potential to slow the progression of chronic kidney disease and reduce the risk of kidney- or cardiovascular-related deaths in patients with CKD and Type 2 diabetes. In August, Novo also reported that the drug could reduce the risk of major cardiovascular events by 20% when compared to the standard of care in overweight individuals with established cardiovascular disease.
Novo’s efforts to secure approvals for semaglutide in improving cardiovascular outcomes and preventing the progression of CKD have the potential to deliver significant sales growth in the near future.
