Amidst a challenging environment of declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines, producers are eagerly awaiting the upcoming fall inoculation season as a crucial opportunity to gauge the evolving landscape of the post-pandemic market. This anticipation is coupled with a noteworthy transition towards a commercial model for vaccines within the United States.
In a recent development, Moderna unveiled preliminary findings from a clinical trial showcasing the efficacy of its updated mRNA vaccine variant. Encouragingly, this new iteration demonstrated a robust and promising response against the prevalent EG.5 (eris) and FL.1.5.1 (fornax) variants, significantly boosting neutralizing antibody levels.
The EG.5 strain has recently been classified by the World Health Organization as a “variant of interest,” prompting close monitoring due to its potential implications, although it is currently not deemed more contagious or severe than earlier lineages. Notably, eris, a subvariant of omicron, has emerged as the fastest-growing strain in the US, accounting for 17% of fresh infections according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Concurrently, the FL.1.5.1 variant is also gaining traction, contributing to 10% of new infections.
“These new results, which show that our updated COVID-19 vaccine generates a robust immune response against the rapidly spreading EG.5 and FL 1.5.1 strains and reflects our updated vaccine’s ability to address emerging COVID-19 threats. Moderna is committed to leveraging our mRNA technology to provide health security around the world.”
– Stephen Hoge, M.D., President of Moderna
Modern’s latest vaccine iteration has been promptly submitted to major regulatory bodies such as the FDA and the European Medicines Agency. The company has affirmed its readiness to deploy an ample global vaccine supply in preparation for the upcoming fall vaccination drive. Moderna’s optimistic outlook was underscored by their projection of administering 100 million vaccine doses within the US during the impending fall season.
In financial terms, the first half of this year saw Moderna achieve vaccine sales totaling $2.2 billion, with $334 million of this revenue generated in the second quarter alone. Encouraged by these figures, the company has raised its annual revenue guidance, now estimating a range of $6 billion to $8 billion, surpassing its previous forecast of $5 billion.
Parallelly, other prominent players in the vaccine domain are also adapting to the evolving landscape. Pfizer and Novavax are diligently working on updated versions of their COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer, however, faced challenges with its Comirnaty vaccine sales, reporting $1.49 billion in the second quarter, which led the company to revise its projected 2023 revenue range downward by $1 billion. Meanwhile, Novavax, the sole non-mRNA vaccine contender in the U.S. market, anticipates releasing its updated COVID vaccine in September. Despite reporting $424 million in second-quarter revenue, the company has adjusted its full-year revenue projection to a range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion, slightly lower than its earlier estimate of $1.4 to $1.6 billion.
As the vaccine landscape transforms and manufacturers pivot to meet new challenges, the impending fall inoculation season promises to be a pivotal turning point, shaping the trajectory of post-pandemic vaccine demand and distribution.
