Following a decline in demand for COVID-19 vaccines, prominent biopharmaceutical companies are gearing up for private-market launches this upcoming fall. While the landscape has shifted, the persistent evolution of the virus necessitates vaccines that can effectively shield against emerging variants. However, as Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax await FDA approval for their updated vaccines, a new variant known as EG.5 or “Eris” has become the dominant strain in the U.S., accounting for 17.3% of cases this month, as reported by the CDC.
Eris, which has spread across 51 countries, has gained recognition as a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization (WHO). Stemming from the XBB.1.9.2 variant, it underscores the ongoing challenges in vaccine development.
Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax have set their sights on countering the XBB.1.5 variant with updated vaccines, aiming for a rollout just ahead of the fall vaccination season. Novavax’s spokesperson conveyed optimism that the new vaccine should offer protection against Eris due to its similarities to the XBB variant. Novavax, the provider of the sole non-mRNA COVID vaccine in the US, is engaged in studies to evaluate its efficacy against Eris.
Monitoring emerging variants closely, Pfizer remains prepared to produce modified vaccine templates tailored to new strains. The company’s updated vaccine could potentially enter the commercial market by the end of August, pending regulatory approval. Similarly, Moderna has observed positive results against the variant in preliminary testing.
As the vaccines transition into the private market, sales forecasts remain uncertain. Moderna anticipates around 100 million doses administered in the US this fall, a projection slightly below the flu season’s average of 150 million doses.
These developments mark a pivotal juncture for vaccines that once commanded substantial sales. Moderna faced a staggering 93% sales decline in the second quarter of this year, generating only $344 million compared to the previous year’s $4.75 billion. Pfizer’s partner, BioNTech, grapples with financial pressure, prompting a cautious approach to spending, as indicated by finance chief Jens Holstein. Pfizer, too, acknowledges cost considerations and is prepared to implement a cost improvement program if COVID sales disappoint. Its second-quarter sales dropped 53% due to shortfalls in COVID vaccine and antiviral sales.
For Novavax, the stakes are particularly high. The company’s viability hinges on the success of its upcoming launch, with a 25% staff reduction already on the horizon as part of a cost-cutting strategy.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of COVID-19 variants and market dynamics, these biopharma giants are navigating unprecedented challenges, seeking to strike a balance between addressing emerging variants and maintaining financial stability.
